Closing line value: comparing your price with the last price

• The closing line has the most information, because it reflects all bets placed.
• Beating the close more often than not is a better sign of skill than a short winning run.
• Measure CLV with implied probability, not raw odds.
• Limited bettors are sometimes those with consistent positive CLV.

You beat this close by about 3.5 points of probability.

Lines move as information and money arrive. By kickoff, the price reflects injuries, weather and sharp bets. Beating it means you priced the game well earlier.

Results are noisy, but CLV shows skill faster than wins and losses.

CLV assumes the closing line is efficient. In small markets such as minor leagues or player props, closing prices can still be off.

A big line move after a single bet can also reflect one large wager, not new information.

1. 1

   Step 01

   Log each bet

   Record odds, book and time.

2. 2

   Step 02

   Record the close

   Use a consistent book, such as a sharp market.

3. 3

   Step 03

   Convert to probability

   Use the formulas above.

4. 4

   Step 04

   Average the gap

   Over many bets.

For a fair test, remove the margin from the closing price. With -110 on both sides, each side has a 52.4% implied chance, but the no-vig chance is 50%.

Comparing your price with the no-vig close gives a cleaner CLV figure.

• Closing line

  The final price before the event starts.

• CLV

  The gap between your price and the close.

• No-vig price

  A price with the book margin removed.

• Steam

  A fast line move across many books.

A spreadsheet with date, sport, odds taken, closing odds and both implied chances is enough. Sort by sport to see where your prices beat the close most often.

Many bettors find their edge sits in one or two leagues.

Judging skill by short-term wins

Results swing too much.

Using raw odds

Convert to probability first.

Comparing with a soft book

Use a sharp closing price.

Chasing steam late

The value is often gone.

• Line shopping →Getting the best price.
• Sportsbook vig →The book margin.
• Moneyline odds →Reading prices.
• Point spread →Spread basics.

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1. Pinnacle — Closing line value Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026Why the close matters
2. American Gaming Association — Research Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026US betting data
3. New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement · accessed Oct 14, 2026Gaming and sports wagering rules
4. National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER