NFL key numbers: the margins games end on most
Many NFL games end with one team winning by exactly 3 or 7 points, because of field goals and touchdowns. A spread that crosses one of those numbers is worth much more than one that does not.
Reviewed Oct 14, 2026
Answer first
90s| Final margin | Share of NFL games (approx.) | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | About 15% | Field goal |
| 7 | About 9% | Touchdown and extra point |
| 10 | About 6% | Touchdown plus field goal |
| 6 | About 6% | Touchdown, missed or no kick |
| 4 | About 5% | Late scoring patterns |
| 14 | About 5% | Two touchdowns |
Key numbers
Key numbers in four numbers
In short
Key takeaways
- A spread of −2.5 wins when the favorite wins by 3; −3.5 loses that game, so the half point is worth a lot.
- Books price lines around 3 and 7 carefully, often moving the juice instead of the number.
- Teasers that move a line across both 3 and 7 are the most valued teaser legs.
- Key numbers matter less in college football, where scores are more spread out.
Progress
How a half point changes a bet
- 1
Line −3 at −110
Push if the margin is 3
- 2
Line −2.5 at −130
Win if the margin is 3, but pay more juice
- 3
Line −3.5 at +105
Lose if the margin is 3, but get a better price
- 4
Compare the cost
The half point around 3 is often worth 15–20 cents of juice
Paying extra juice to get off −3.5 is often fair value; around other numbers, it rarely is.
Value of a half point (rough guide)
| Move | Games it changes | Rough value |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 to 3 or 3 to 2.5 | About 8% (half of the 3s) | High |
| 7.5 to 7 or 7 to 6.5 | About 5% | Medium |
| 4.5 to 4 | About 3% | Low |
| 5.5 to 5 | About 2% | Low |
A half point on 3 changes the result of more games than on any other number.
Why the NFL has key numbers
NFL scoring comes in steps of 3, 6, 7 and 8 points. Close games often end on a late field goal, which is why 3 is the most common margin.
Since the extra point moved back in 2015, margins of 7 dropped a little and others like 6 and 8 rose slightly.
Sequence
Using key numbers
Step 01
Check the margin table
Note where 3 and 7 sit.
Step 02
Shop lines
Find −2.5 or +3.5 where you can.
Step 03
Compare juice
Pay up only around 3 and 7.
Step 04
Teaser legs
Move favorites of −7.5 to −8.5 down through 7 and 3.
Step 05
Avoid dead zones
Half points around 5 or 9 add little.
How books handle them
A book may hold a line at −3 and move the price from −110 to −120 instead of going to −3.5. That protects the key number.
When a line sits at −3 −120, the other side at +3 +100 can be good value for underdog bettors.
Key numbers in totals
Totals have weaker key numbers, such as 41, 43, 44, 47 and 51. They matter less than margins.
Totals often move in full points without large changes in juice.
Floor rules
Key number terms
Know before you sit
- Key number
- A margin games end on often.
- Hook
- A half point on a spread, such as −3.5.
- Buy points
- Pay extra juice to move a spread.
- Wong teaser
- A teaser crossing both 3 and 7.
Key numbers in a moneyline
Moneylines move most sharply around spreads of 3 and 7. A team at −3 might be −150, while −3.5 might be −175.
That jump reflects how often the favorite wins by exactly 3. Comparing moneyline and spread prices around key numbers can show where value sits.
Common mistakes
- Buying points everywhere
- A half point is worth paying for only around 3 and 7. Elsewhere it costs more than it returns.
- Ignoring juice changes
- A line held at −3 with more juice can signal a key-number move. Read the price, not just the number.
- Using NFL key numbers for college
- College games end by a wider spread of margins, so the same rules lose value.
- Teasing through nothing
- A teaser that does not cross 3 or 7 gives up value without much gain.
Keep reading
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01Basics
What are key numbers in NFL betting?
Final margins that occur most often, mainly 3 and 7. Spreads near those numbers are priced carefully.
Why is 3 the most important number?
About 15% of NFL games end with a three-point margin, mostly due to field goals.
Why is 7 a key number?
A touchdown plus extra point is 7, so many close games end with a seven-point margin.
02Using them
Should I buy a half point off 3?
It is often worth it at a fair price. Moving from −3.5 to −3 or from −3 to −2.5 changes many results.
What is a Wong teaser?
A six-point teaser that moves favorites of −7.5 to −8.5 down to −1.5 to −2.5, or underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 up to +7.5 to +8.5.
Do totals have key numbers?
Weaker ones, such as 41, 44 and 47. They matter much less than spread margins. Shopping totals by price helps more.
03Changes
Did key numbers change after the extra point move?
In 2015 the NFL moved the extra point back. Margins of 7 became a little less common and 6 and 8 a little more.
Does overtime change key numbers?
Overtime adds some 3- and 6-point margins, but the effect on the overall table is small.
Are key numbers the same for every book?
The margins are the same, but books price them differently. Shopping lines is the way to use them.
Sources
- American Gaming Association — Sports betting Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026US legal sports betting data
- Pro Football Reference Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026Historical NFL scores and margins
- Nevada Gaming Control Board · accessed Oct 14, 2026Approved games and gaming revenue reports
- National Council on Problem Gambling — Help and resources Not from a registry (Reference source, not an official registry) · accessed Oct 14, 2026Free, confidential help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER